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Europe felt a moment of respite on Monday, as the crisis caused by the announcement of a new comprehensive peace framework for resolving the conflict appeared – momentarily – to have been defused. A American diplomat spoke of "substantial progress" after Ukraine-US talks in Geneva. On Monday night, Russian leadership made its response: a renewed assault of rocket attacks on Kyiv.

The Cycle of Peace Talks and Military Action

The sequence of conflicting incidents captured the harsh reality of the current period. By day, negotiation efforts are fought: positive announcements are issued from multiple capitals. Considerable effort is expended on restraining particular approaches. By night, the Kremlin clearly shows the world that, for them, war remains the main instrument for achieving "settlement".

After-Dark Attacks

As military strikes developed into the early hours of Tuesday, the current condition of Ukraine's vulnerability was exposed. Ukraine is capable of detecting projectile deployments from Russian territory, a ability afforded by current data. From witness perspectives, defense planes that had been deployed to counter approaching guided weapons roared overhead – modern combat jets provided to Ukraine by European allies.

Soon thereafter, Kyiv's missile defense activated: multiple launches targeted at a hostile projectile. This was a sophisticated defense system at work, probably supplied through allied countries. Every deployment jolts you unexpectedly, causing tremors. The moment of terror quickly becomes grim resignation: possibly the hostile projectile won't hit its mark this time, sparing the city from ruin and another blackout.

Ongoing Risks

Not long after, a heavy machine gun engaged a unmanned aircraft in the vicinity, part of a defensive team – most likely Western-made equipment. Sadly, the bullets missed the opposing UAV – it continued its flight toward its objective.

With pauses, this persisted until dawn. Kyiv faced the morning news: several casualties, destruction and utility failures in many homes as a result of the evening attack. As always, everyone still maintained normal activities – enduring hostilities. But those 24 hours demonstrated Ukraine's vital need on international aid – a reliance that European nations are clearly incapable to replace in the near term.

Unsuccessful Negotiations

The detailed framework from American leadership generated strong feelings, debate and profound anxiety – and briefly redirected concern from Ukraine's largest corruption scandal in years. Yet, we have seen this script before, after prior negotiation attempts and bilateral conferences.

Every new proposal from Washington adheres to the identical sequence: a negotiation push against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with other European capitals, succeeds in resisting. They manage the tension but never actually win the battle. This pattern will, certainly, persist.

Strategic Calculations

It is convenient to criticize specific actors of repeatedly advocating Moscow's conditions. But that does not seem to be the whole story. US administration functions according to a principle understood by experienced diplomats: you cannot secure via talks what you have failed to defend militarily. The US administration assumes that it is unrealistic to force Russia to relinquish the areas that it presently holds in Ukraine's south or east.

The issue is that while accepting these circumstances, Washington does little to discourage Russia, through statements or actions, from thinking that the current condition will not evolve additionally in its favour in the coming year.

Opposing Positions

Therefore, Russian leadership is convinced that the clock favors them – that Ukraine and its partners are coming close to fatigue. Their incentive to accept conditions that does not give them the maximum possible gain is virtually nonexistent. There may be numerous efforts to end hostilities, but they will persist as long as Russia's leadership remains supremely confident in the conclusion.

On the contrary, Ukraine's government believes that Ukraine can still persist, progressively conceding people and territory but preventing a total frontline collapse until circumstances change in its favour.

Current Realities

Realistically, there are no actual prerequisites for a ceasefire. Now, subjective factors are becoming relevant: personal goals to mediate resolution and obtain worldwide acknowledgment, and the government's double obstacles – on one hand, not to alienate a key ally, and on the other, to rally Ukrainians around the country's interests against any initiative Kyiv finds unacceptable, so that their priority does not switch to domestic problems. And although their objective will now be significantly challenging after recent developments, it remains quite doubtful that this will change their overall approach.

These opposing factors are guiding negotiations.

Assessment and Future

It took a just a single week to kill the 28 points of the latest plan. Forceful and unpredictable management of the matter by US administration, pushback by Ukraine and the remaining European nations, along with soothing efforts of negotiators, and finally, current information leaks, all achieved their purpose.

While new proposals based on previous concepts are approaching, Kyiv, London and other allied nations should reach an essential realization: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to counter political attacks from Washington that are rooted in Kremlin requirements and reflect specific hesitation to modify developments, if they remain united and strengthen their defence capabilities at a significantly accelerated rate. If they do, no combination of diplomatic or military actions will be able to defeat them. In the meantime, Ukraine's capacity to repel nightly air assaults will, for the predictable period, mainly require ongoing international assistance.