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Ten years after the UK stumbled into a rushed public vote that divided the country and caused turmoil, a advisory comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.

Authorities and citizens drifted into Brexit and the same might transpire with a national vote on a united Ireland, triggering disturbances for which nobody is prepared.

That is the message from two respected commentators from both sides of the Irish border who have teamed up to analyse the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to establish a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.

Political Establishments Ill-Equipped

Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have determined that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are gravely ill-prepared for a potentially tense and transformative public vote.

"The key takeaway of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that developments can emerge unexpectedly and can gain traction very quickly," the commentator remarked. "In my opinion that the governmental framework of our archipelago remains highly fragile."

Book Publication Seeks to Stir Debate

The team have examined the governmental, economic and societal rationales for any structural alteration in a publication, The Case For and Against Unification, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.

They aim to provoke discussion on the issue with a series of speaking events that will bring them to Westminster soon.

"What troubles everyone, or ought to concern everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," stated O’Toole.

"We should prevent a national vote on a binary, unclear proposal whose implications have not been clarified because then you end up with an highly polarised community where those defeated are unable to accept defeat and the people who have won lack clarity exactly what it is that they have won."

Governmental Mandate

Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state must arrange a public vote on Irish unification if it is indicated that a majority would vote in favour.

Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups argue such a time is approaching, and a organisation called Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists minimise the likelihood, resulting in ambiguity when or if there might be a referendum.

Lack of Substantive Discussion

Ideological statements for and against unification has masked the shortage of substantive discussion, said McBride.

"Many are for or against the notion but the actual thinking which may surpass that to realise it is mostly absent. A great deal has occurred in universities but very few government figures or advocates are willing to participate even with the basics. As an example, which kind of country would you want? Centralised? Decentralised?"

Volume's Strategy

In the publication, no writer endorses unification or the current situation. They composes two essays that strive for impartiality in laying out the argument for a unified Ireland and the argument against, marshalling financial and societal data, past examples and constitutional models.

Discussions cover flags and symbols, duties, health services, retirement funds, sovereign debt obligations and the risk of unionist unrest. The aim is to enlighten and stimulate dialogue.

"Considerable attention exists in the issue but there hasn't quite been a discussion," stated the writer. "Debate implies an acknowledgement of the notion that there may exist reasonable perspectives on each side."

Simultaneous Plebiscites

A public vote in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters claim they favour unification but oppose paying higher taxes or adopting a alternative symbol to reflect unionists' British identity.

"Policymakers in Ireland must establish what the plan from pro-unification movements is other than just declaring: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we value you'," stated the commentator.

Possibility of Referendum

The journalist thinks a national vote in his era is possible and that it may take place abruptly. "You could have just a reckless or a bad or a negligent official who declares: 'We should proceed and resolve it.'"

Each of the nationalists and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, legitimate arguments, he stated. "One side will win in this matter and the other side will in the end lose but both parties has possesses something to gain from the opposing positions."

Appeal for Broader Discussion

Westminster must engage with the dialogue, stated O’Toole. "This involves your state. It's a British question equally as it is an Irish question."